Real Estate Market Dynamics
While adjustable-rate mortgage rates decreased last week, the 30-year fixed mortgage’s average rate increased to its highest point since 2000. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index shows that this led to a rush on these so-called ARMs, which increased the overall amount of mortgage applications by very marginally, or 0.6%, over the previous week.
The average contract interest rate for loans with a 20% down payment that are 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan sums of $726,200 or less went up to 7.67% from 7.53%. However, the average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs dropped from 6.49% to 6.33%.
Because they have shorter fixed periods, ARMs often provide substantially lower rates. However, there has been an abnormally small gap recently between ARM rates and the 30-year fixed rate. It expanded last week.
Vice president and deputy chief economist at MBA Joel Kan stated in a release that “the level of ARM applications increased by 15% over the week, bringing the ARM share up to 9.2% of all applications, the highest share since November 2022.” In recent weeks, the yield curve has lessened in inversion, and ARM pricing has undoubtedly improved.
Home loan refinancing applications were 9% fewer this week than they were a year ago, although they were up 0.3% from the previous week.
1% more mortgage applications were made this week than the same week last year, when they were 19% fewer.
According to Kan, “purchase applications are still nearly 20% behind last year’s pace, and application activity is still depressed and near multi-decade lows.”
We’ve reached the lowest point in the average loan size since 2017. It suggests that the majority of sales are concentrated towards the lower end of the market. In the middle class, affordability has been so severely damaged that the market is almost paralyzed, while purchasers at the very top end typically pay with cash.
Many would-be purchasers were present at an open house in Washington, D.C. on Sunday, although the majority claimed to be only perusing. At $1.54 million, the residence was priced.
As expected, inventory increased over the first two weeks of October, but we’re seeing fewer purchasers as a result of higher loan rates. Lisa Resch, a Compass real estate agent who listed the house, said there was “a lot of traffic, but not many actual shoppers.”